Every time a new camera model is announced, people flood the online photo discussion boards, wondering, “once the new model comes out, the price of the old model will plummet, right?”
My sense from watching these things has been that this is rarely the case. However, I didn’t have any empirical evidence to back this up.
The Canon 5D was released in late 2005 for US$2500. I don’t have complete data on this, but I can definitely say that by Spring of 2008 the 5D was getting long in the tooth and most retailers had it for about $2000-2100.
Like many, I knew the 5D was expected to be retired and upgraded by Canon; I was initially waiting for the successor. However, a change in requirements by one of my stock agencies convinced me: I needed to upgrade my camera before my Block Island trip. The cheapest price I could find online was US$2000 (going by memory here; it may have been $2099). However, I found an ebay seller through whom I acquired a 5D for $1800 in April 2008.
A few months later (July 2008) Canon had rebates on the 5D. Price after rebate, US$1799 at Amazon ($1899 at Adorama and $1999 at B&H, according to Bob Atkins). After rebate, the price went back to $2300 at B&H.
The 5D Mark II was announced September 17, 2008.
Here it is now the end of 2008, and the 5D Mark II is in-stock and shipping from most major retailers. Amazon currently has the original 5D for US$1863. That’s still more expensive than it was in July during the rebates (although very close).
So, what’s happening here? When a camera is released, it sells for its highest list price. But over time the price does decline gradually, as the model ages and competitors offer better value for the price point. This trend does not seem to change when a new model is released. It seems to me, the gradual decline continues but does not markedly accelerate.
So, the lesson is: rebates are a good deal. The people who skipped buying the 5D during the July rebate period, figuring that the price of the 5D would drop lower in a few months, would have been better off buying during the July rebate period, rather than waiting. They would have had six months of use of the camera in that time, and no advantage for waiting.
As the economic recession widens, we’ll see what happens; maybe all bets will be off. What I expect is that the 5D price will continue to gradually drop until stock runs out. What I believe is that the $1799 rebate price is the lowest we’ll ever see; it’s the absolute lowest floor price on that camera from major retailers.
